Xinhua reports today that the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is predicting problems ahead, after 30 years of the one-child policy.  An ever-increasing number of old people will rely on an ever-decreasing number of young people, a lob-sided equation that bodes ill for long term economic development.

 By 2020, CASS estimates that 17% of the population will be aged 65 or older. Other reports have extrapolated that, by 2050, over-65s will constitute 31% of the population.  What’s more, CASS says that the size of the labour force will peak at just under 1 billion in 2016 and decrease steadily from then on.  The country’s competitive advantage currently rests in the abundant availability of cheap workers, but within less than a decade this supply will start to dry up.

Coupled with the economic problems of the one child policy addressed in this article, a number of equally worrying social issues are emerging.  For one thing, the male-female birth ratio is well above the international average and increasing all the time. In the 1980s the ratio stood at a relativelly normal 108.5 boys born for every 100 girls.  But current estimates place the present figure at close to 120 boys for every 100 girls, and it is believed to be far higher  in certain parts of the country. As this mismatched generation comes of age, the already quite serious problems of bride-trafficking and female kidnapping will likely become increasingly common, with the potential for many other problems to emerge as large numbers of single male migrant workers descend on China’s urban centres.